Commodity Price Movement Recap

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Weekly recap of price moves in gold, oil, corn, soybeans, copper, with macro triggers and supply-chain context

Commodity Price Movement Recap2026-07-02

Weekly settlements: Oil loses the war premium

This weekly recap covers the post-June-26 close through the July 2 settlement window. Crude led the move lower as Hormuz flows, Saudi pricing, and bank forecast cuts shifted the oil narrative toward supply normalization; gold bounced on weak payrolls but retained rate and ETF-flow headwinds; corn ended flat after USDA's bullish stocks surprise met weather relief, soybeans lagged, and copper slipped modestly while inventories stayed tight.

Commodity Price Movement Recap2026-06-26

June 26 settlements: Crude breaks below $70

June 26 was a supply-normalization session in crude, with WTI settling below $70 as Ras Tanura loadings restarted and forecast cuts reinforced bearish oil sentiment. Gold bounced on a softer dollar and lower Fed-hike odds, copper stayed supported by tight inventories and Grasberg risk, and grains eased ahead of the June 30 USDA Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports.

Commodity Price Movement Recap2026-06-25

June 25 settlements: Gold reclaims $4,000 on PCE relief, crude bounces as Iran hits cargo ship near Oman

All six tracked commodities settled higher on June 25 — gold +0.82% to $4,041.60 ending a 6-day losing streak after core PCE came in at 3.4% (in-line), WTI +2.95% to $71.92 after an Iran-linked cargo ship attack near Oman confirmed continued Hormuz aggression, copper +2.11% to $6.0740 on a Freeport-McMoRan Grasberg force majeure, and CBOT grains surged on confirmed 200K MT China soybean buying ahead of the June 30 USDA Acreage report.

Commodity Price Movement Recap2026-06-24

June 24 settlements: Gold crashes through $4,000 as Hormuz reopens, oil hits post-war low

Gold GCQ6 (Aug) settled at $4,008.80 (−3.4%), touching $3,959.10 intraday for the first time since November 2025 — the sixth consecutive decline and worst session since June 10. WTI CLQ6 fell 4.58% to $69.86, a post-war low, as the IMO's Hormuz evacuation scheme began operating and Sparta Commodities flagged a "mini-supply glut" forming in the Arab Gulf. All precious metals sold off in lockstep: silver −7.85%, platinum −5.5%, palladium −6.8%. DXY hit a 52-week high of 101.80. Trump ordered a DOJ gasoline price probe. Soybeans (+1.61%) were the session's only winner.

Commodity Price Movement Recap2026-06-23

June 23 settlements: Gold breaks $4,200, copper crashes 3.8% as DXY hits 13-month high

Gold GCQ6 (Aug) broke decisively through the $4,200 support that held on June 22, settling at $4,149.40 (−1.42%), as DXY hit a new 13-month high of 101.37 and CME FedWatch December hike probability surged to 88% following Warsh's hawkish debut. Copper HGN6 crashed 3.80% to $6.1275/lb — the worst single-session move in the complex. WTI CLQ6 fell 1.17% to $73.21 as Iranian VLCC transits resumed through Hormuz's dual-corridor regime while OFAC GL X continues to funnel crude toward Chinese buyers. CBOT grains split: soybeans held fractionally positive (+0.13%) on meal strength while corn slipped 0.43% for a third straight down close. Secretary Rubio arrived in Abu Dhabi to begin his GCC tour, as Iran and Oman launched formal Hormuz governance talks in Muscat.

Commodity Price Movement Recap2026-06-22

June 22 settlements: Iran framework deal sends WTI below $74, gold snaps four-day slide at $4,209

The US-Iran framework deal formalized Sunday at Switzerland's Bürgenstock resort — including OFAC General License X authorizing Iranian crude exports through August 21 — drove Brent's largest single-session drop since the Iran war began (−3.31% to $77.90) and sent WTI CLQ6 (now primary after CLN6's July expiry) to $74.08. Gold GCQ6 snapped a four-day losing streak at $4,209.30 as $4,200 held, though macro headwinds (DXY at 52-week high 101.08, 10Y yields +5.6 bps to 4.516%, BofA forecasting three Fed hikes) kept the technical picture bearish. CBOT grains reopened after Juneteenth with corn ZCN6 −1.44% and soybeans ZSN6 −0.58% on stable USDA crop ratings and soft export inspections. Copper HGN6 edged +0.51% as Cobre Panama cleared its environmental audit.

Commodity Price Movement Recap2026-06-19

June 19 settlements: Gold cracks $4,200 EMA, oil rebounds on Vance's cancelled Iran trip, CBOT dark for Juneteenth

Gold GCQ6 −1.30% to $4,172.90 breaking 200-day EMA; Brent +1.65% to $80.57 / WTI +1.17% $77.54 on Vance-Geneva cancellation; CBOT closed Juneteenth; China 504K MT soybean buying paused.

Commodity Price Movement Recap2026-06-18

June 18 settlements: oil bounces on Versailles, gold sinks on Warsh

COMEX Gold GCQ6 fell to $4,227.90 (−1.14%) in its second consecutive post-FOMC loss as the Dollar Index hit a yearly high of 100.82 and CME FedWatch repriced September rate-hike odds to ~67%. WTI CLN6 rebounded $1.03 to $76.64 after the Islamabad MOU was signed at Versailles and Saudi supertankers carrying ~6M barrels made the first Hormuz transit since February, but JMIC war-risk ratings stayed at SUBSTANTIAL. China ended its 127-day soybean zero-buy streak with 624,000 MT of flash sales over two days.

Commodity Price Movement Recap2026-06-17

Warsh snap: gold loses $77 as dot plot shifts hawkish

Gold −1.78% to $4,276 as Warsh's first dot plot (9/18 hawk) snaps 4-day rally; WTI $75.61; Corn +1.75%; USDA 372K MT soybean flash sale — likely China

Commodity Price Movement Recap2026-06-16

Oil breaks $77, gold holds — Warsh opens Day 1

WTI −5.2% to $76.56; Brent below $80; gold holds; Warsh opens FOMC Day 1

Commodity Price Movement Recap2026-06-15

Oil hits a 3-month low as gold rallies — the Iran deal's split verdict

Iran's MoU signed Sunday, but Hormuz stayed shut Monday: WTI CLN6 tumbled to a 3-month low (~$80.75, −4.2%), while gold surged +2.66% to $4,351.60 as cheaper oil repriced the Fed's rate-hike path. Corn and soybeans edged up on short covering. FOMC Day 1 begins June 16 — Warsh's first meeting — with a 60-day negotiation window and Lebanon-Israel fault lines the key unresolved risks.

Commodity Price Movement Recap2026-06-12

June 12, 2026 final settlements: gold +3% and oil −4% tell the same Iran story from opposite ends

Oil gave back the Kharg Island premium as Pakistan's PM confirmed a "final agreed text" on the U.S.-Iran MoU — WTI CLN6 settled at $84.29 (−3.92%), Brent at $86.80 (−3.96%), both at multi-month lows. Gold rose simultaneously (+3.03% to $4,238.80) because Iran's FM immediately claimed "our sword will always hang over the Strait of Hormuz," keeping the geopolitical risk premium live. Copper gained +3.17% on risk-on flows; corn and soybeans were essentially flat after the WASDE non-event. FOMC opens in six days with Warsh's first meeting; markets price a hold.

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